Continuing the series comparing the APBA Baseball Master game with the Strat-O-Matic Super Advanced baseball game. The end result is not to determine that one game is better than the other. I have played over 200 games of each of these games during my 1968 SAD-V replay and my 1971 APBA Master game replay and enjoy both immensely. The end result is to share how each game’s mechanics work.
Today’s topic is base running. This includes advancing on a hit or a fly ball. The APBA Master game rates players with a running speed from “3” the slowest (think 1971 White Sox catcher Ed Herrmann) to “19” the fastest base runner (think 1971 Cardinal Lou Brock). On a base hit, factors that have to be considered besides the base runners speed rating are the outfielders arm, 1971 Dodger Dick Allen is rated with a 23 arm. While 1971 Pirates outfielder Roberto Clemente is rated with a 38 arm. Another factor in baseball is the depth and placement of the hit. In the APBA Master game this is replicated by the “Hit Valuation Number”. The Hit Valuation Number is probably solely responsible for many potential Master game players returning to the Basic game.
Actually determining a player’s success chance to advance an extra base fairly straight forward. First the Advance number is calculated.
Advance Number = Outfielder’s arm – runner’s speed.
From that we calculate the Chance Number:
Chance Number = Hit Valuation Number – Advance Number.
For example, Lou Brock is on first and the batter’s result from his card is an “8” (the pitcher’s grade is only “7” so it is a hit to left field) with one out. If Dick Allen is the left fielder the Advance Number is:
23 – 19 = 4
The Hit Valuation Number with one out is 28.
Thus 28 – 4 = 24.
One then converts 24 into chances out of 36 or 11 to 66 based on how the dice are read in APBA. Based on the Base Advancement Chance Table, a 24 equals 46 out of 66 chances from the dice roll.
The Hit Valuation Number usually increases with two out. In our example above, the Hit Valuation Number is 35 with two out. The Advance Number does not change.
The Chance Number with two out:
Hit Valuation = 35
Advance Number = 23 – 19 = 4 (or Dick Allen’s arm – Lou Brock’s speed).
35-4 =31 which converts to 61 out of 66 chances with two out. Be careful though, you never want to make the first or third out at third base.
There are a couple other factors that sometimes effect the final chance number of a base runner. One is the batter’s characteristic. In the example above using the “8” result off the batter’s card, if the batter pulls right (PR) like the before mentioned Ed Herrmann the Hit Valuation Number increases to 51 to right field with less than two out and 61 with two outs. So if Clemente is the right fielder with one out and Brock on first:
Advance number = 38 – 19 = 19
Chance Number = 51 – 19 = 32 (or 62 out of 66 chances to be safe on the dice roll). The Chance Number with two out would be 61 – 19 = 42 (Brock would automatically advance to third and would have a 16 out of 66 dice roll chance to score).
The other factor involves the pitcher’s move-to-first rating (MF). If the pitcher is rated 0 or +1 he does not slow down the runner. If the pitcher is rated +2, one is subtracted from the runner’s chance number. If the pitcher is rated with a +3 MF, two is subtracted from the runner’s chance number.
If the runner is not held by the first baseman, add one to the the Chance Number unless he is rated “6” or less, a (S)low runner.
Finally, an easier computation might be:
Hit Valuation Number – outfielder arm + runner’s speed. From the above example, Hit Valuation Number = 28, Allen’s arm = 23, and Brock’s speed = 19.
=28 – 23 = 5 plus 19 = 24 Chance Number.
Batter and Runner Advancement on Throws.
One refers to the Base Advancement Chance Table to determine the chance of a batter or runner advancing on the throw. The Hit Valuation Number is not used for a batter or base runner advancing on the throw.
From my experience, this is not a good percentage play for either the runner on some plays or the defense on other plays. It’s based on the Chance Number of the lead runner. If the runner has a chance number between 15 and 22 (dice roll of 33 to 44) or a 33 or greater chance number (63 to 66 dice roll) advancing on the throw can be beneficial.
Why I say it’s not a good play for the base runner is if the runner has a little over 36 out of 66 chance to advance, one is probably going to hold the runner. One may send the runner home with two outs with a lower chance runner.
Why I say it’s not a good play for the defense is with a 63 or greater chance, odds are one is not going to throw for the lead runner.
An example of the runner advancing on the throw:
Ed Herrmann lines a single to right, Brock’s chance number from above to go to third is 32. Clemente attempts to throw Brock out at third. Herrmann decides to advance to second on the throw. Herrmann’s advance number is found on the Base Advancement Chance Table under the 32 for Brock’s chance number. It is 2. The Advance Number of 2 is added to Herrmann’s speed of “3” for a total of 5 out of 36 chances to successfully advance on the throw. After it is determined if Brock is safe or out the third baseman throws to second to attempt to throw out Herrmann if he were to attempt to go to second on the throw.
In certain situations, the first baseman, third baseman, or shortstop may Cut-Off the Throw for the lead runner and attempt to throw out the trailing runner. In this case the lead runner is automatically safe and the Chance Number of the trailing batter or runner is reduced by 15.
While I always evaluate sending the trailing runner and employing the Cut-Off play, either has only been implemented during my 1971 replay a hand full of times.
All of this sounds complex but it is easier than probably how I tried to explain it. Next will be Strat’s base running.